Your headshot predicts your paycheck
An AI looked at 96,000 LinkedIn photos. It predicted career success better than GPA, GMAT, or attractiveness. Combined.
New National Bureau of Economic Research study from The Wharton School and Yale University used AI to extract Big Five personality traits from MBA grads' headshots. Then tracked their careers.
The pay gap between people with the most vs. least "favorable" personality profiles? 8-12%. Even after controlling for school, race, and attractiveness—still 4-5%. That's as large as the Black-White wage gap in their data. And almost completely independent of test scores.
What’s the algorithm actually seeing?
Honestly? We don't fully know. The neural network converts your face into 128 dimensions and maps them to personality. It doesn't show its work.
But decades of research tell us faces encode personality through four channels:
—Genetics
DNA shapes both your jawline and your temperament. 30-60% of Big Five variance is heritable.
—Hormones
Prenatal testosterone builds wider faces and drives competitive behavior. Facial width-to-height ratio has been linked to aggression in hockey players and achievement drive in U.S. presidents.
—Social feedback
People with babyfaced features get treated as warmer and more submissive, and actually become more agreeable over time. Your face shapes how people treat you. How people treat you shapes who you become.
—Micro-choices
Even in a cropped headshot, grooming and expression decisions correlate with personality, signals so small you don't know you're sending them.
The wildest finding?
Extraversion hurts your chances of getting into a top MBA program but is the strongest predictor of earning more once you're out. The trait admissions committees penalize is exactly what the labor market rewards.
Companies like Harver already use AI personality inference in hiring for Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Bain & Company, and JPMorganChase. The tools are here. The regulation isn't.
Is an algorithm reading your bone structure more or less fair than a VP deciding you're "not a culture fit" over lunch? If you're leading hiring or team design right now, you're making personality bets whether you realize it or not.
What trait do you think matters most?
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Source: AI Personality Extraction From Faces: Labor Market Implications, Guenzel et al, Feb 2026